The Senate elections on 27 September saw 178 of the 348 seats in the Palais du Luxembourg up for re-election, without undermining the right-wing and centrist majority. Behind this stability, however, the election has nevertheless altered the composition of the Upper House: the formation of an RN group, the first entry of La France insoumise, and the continued erosion of the presidential camp. With just a few months to go before the 2027 presidential election, these results thus point to a reshuffled Senate, without any real shift in its overall balance of power.
A solid majority, but shifting balances
The main lesson to be drawn from the election is the strength of the Senate majority. Despite a slight decline, Les Républicains remain the leading force in the Senate, whilst the Union centriste has made gains and retains significant influence. Together, the two groups are expected to hold 182 seats, above the absolute majority threshold of 175, subject to final realignments. However, this continuity does not mean stagnation. The internal balance of the majority is gradually shifting towards the centre, whilst the presidential camp continues to lose ground: the RDPI group is expected to comprise around 38 senators. With the presidential election just a few months away, the Senate thus presents a significantly different picture from that of the National Assembly: a clearly dominant centre-right majority, a Socialist Party that retains a solid regional presence, and a presidential bloc that is very much in the minority.
The RN changes its status at the Palais du Luxembourg
The main development arising from the election, however, lies on the right of the chamber. Having previously been very poorly represented in the Palais du Luxembourg, the National Rally and its allies now have the numbers required to form a parliamentary group for the first time. This group could comprise around fifteen senators, compared with just three RN members elected before the election. The change is less a matter of numbers than of institutional significance. Forming a group grants access to dedicated resources, representation on the Senate’s various bodies, and a greater capacity to influence legislative work and oversight. Without upsetting the balance of power in the Upper House, this progress marks a new stage in the RN’s institutional and territorial consolidation.
On the left, the Socialist Party remains the main opposition force. The Greens have lost ground but retain their parliamentary group, whilst La France insoumise has entered the Senate with two elected members. However, there are not enough of them to form their own parliamentary group, so they will have to join an existing one.
The committees: a de facto third round of the Senate elections
However, the election on 27 September provides only an initial snapshot of the new Senate. A second phase – less visible but decisive – is now beginning, centring on the formation of parliamentary groups and the allocation of responsibilities. On 1 October, senators will elect the President of the Senate; Gérard Larcher is expected to be able to rely on the continued support of the right-wing and centrist majority. The official composition of the parliamentary groups will be finalised on 5 October: nine groups are expected, including the new group bringing together the RN and its allies. On 6 October, the Bureau will be renewed and the allocation of seats amongst the committees finalised, before the bureaux of the seven standing committees are formed the following day.
Several ministerial posts are expected to remain unchanged: Philippe Mouiller (LR) for Social Affairs, Muriel Jourda (LR) for Legislation, Cédric Perrin (LR) for Foreign Affairs and Dominique Estrosi Sassone (LR) for Economic Affairs are, in particular, tipped to be reappointed. Other posts, however, will be subject to deliberation, particularly in the Finance Committee, where Thierry Cozic (PS) is standing to succeed Claude Raynal and where Christine Lavarde (LR) and Stéphane Sautarel (LR) could vie for the strategic role of general rapporteur for the budget. Beyond the mere tally of seats, the allocation of these responsibilities will therefore provide a much more nuanced picture of the balance of power emerging from the election, particularly between LR and the Union Centriste, but also of the institutional standing accorded to the new RN-UDR group.
With 2027 in sight, the budget is the first test
Constantly called upon to justify its existence, the Senate emerges from this election with one distinctive feature: it remains largely untouched by the realignment that is reshaping the rest of the French political landscape in the run-up to 2027. The right and the centre have retained their majority, the Socialist Party remains firmly entrenched, whilst the president’s camp continues to lose ground. This balance of power is now set for three years and will therefore carry over into the presidential election and the parliamentary elections that follow. It will, however, be put to the test very soon. The 2027 budget will, as early as this autumn, constitute the first major political test for the newly elected Senate. The scrutiny of the draft Finance Bill (PLF) and the draft Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS) will provide an initial indication of the cohesion of the right-wing and centrist majority and of how the various opposition groups intend to exert their influence within the new political landscape.
However, the full picture of the Senate following the election is yet to be finalised. The final formation of the groups, followed by the allocation of responsibilities within the Bureau and the committees, will be the final stages of this renewal. These will make it possible to gauge the true influence of each political force and, beyond the results of 27 September, to shape the political and institutional landscape of the Senate for the next three years.
CDR Grayling
- Samuel Augizeau, Public Affairs Consultant
- Email: samuel.augizeau@grayling.com